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College football’s recent, rapid changes have not been kind to military service academies, which aren’t able to leverage the transfer portal to rework their rosters on a whim in the way that the vast majority of the 133 other Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) programs are. Their players, who are employees of the U.S. Armed Forces, are also currently legally barred from securing deals in which they can profit off of their name, image and likeness. Over the past several years, those reforms piled onto existing hurdles to fielding a successful FBS football program with cadets: Air Force, for very good and understandable reasons, has to be a little more selective about who it lets into its school.
Still, under 18th-year head coach Troy Calhoun, Air Force has won at least eight games in seven of its past nine full seasons. That consistency has created an underlying assumption when it comes to the Falcons: Regardless of the circumstances, there’s a strong chance Air Force is going to be pretty good.
In 2024, that theory will yet again be tested.
Though they came apart late, losing their final four regular season games after an 8-0 start, the Falcons notched their fourth consecutive full season with at least nine wins and rose as high as No. 17 in the Associated Press poll. Most of the key contributors to that success, however, are now gone. Just how widespread is that roster turnover? Air Force is down five of its top six rushers from last season, a notable distinction for a program with an offense overwhelmingly dependent on running the ball. The offensive line—the group tasked with controlling the line of scrimmage and plowing holes for those various ball-carriers—is having to replace all five starters from the 2023 season. (Of its six leading tacklers from last season, three ended up on NFL preseason rosters.)
Still, there’s ample reason to believe in the Falcons. If their recent history is proof of anything, it’s that they can sustain losses and continue to put out a strong on-field product. The last time they lost the entire starting offensive line, for example, they responded by going 10-3 in 2021. While players like fullback Emmanuel Michel on offense and defensive end Bo Richter will be particularly difficult to replace, many of the players stepping into those starting positions have offered encouraging glimpses in more limited roles. If nothing else, those around the Mountain West are optimistic about what Air Force can accomplish, as the Falcons were picked fourth in the 12-team league in its preseason poll.
“Everything’s up for grabs with these guys,” Air Force defensive coordinator Brian Knorr said to the Colorado Springs Gazette. “The great competition brings it out of you. You’ll probably see a lot of different rosters. There may be movement throughout the season. [In the past] once guys started, they’ve pretty much started the rest of the season. With ours, they’ll continue to compete all year long.”
5280 Record Prediction: 8-4
Can’t-Miss Matchup
@ Army, November 2: Remember that 8-0 start last season that had Air Force harboring dreams of playing in a New Year’s Six bowl game? Those hopes were dashed in particularly crushing fashion by Army, which throttled the Falcons 23-3 last November at Empower Field. That stunning defeat (Air Force had four lost fumbles) not only precipitated a four-game losing streak for the Falcons, but it also handed Army the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy, the award given annually to the winner of the series between college football’s three service academies. If Calhoun’s team hopes to take back the trophy, which it has won a record 21 times, it will almost certainly have to defeat the Black Knights when they face off this year in West Point.
Find the Falcons’ schedule here.
3 Players to Watch
Dylan Carson, running back: Of Air Force’s top six players in rushing yardage last season, only Carson is back. Though he wasn’t leaned on heavily in the Falcons’ backfield, Carson was one of his team’s most effective running options, racking up 493 yards and two touchdowns. His 7.3 yards per carry were the most of Air Force’s six leading rushers. Perhaps most impressively, he was never thrown down for a loss on any of his 68 rushing attempts. In recent years, the Falcons have been able to transition relatively seamlessly from one group of rushers to another. If Carson does his job, that trend can continue.
Payton Zdroik, defensive lineman: For all the personnel losses Air Force suffered on the defensive side of the ball, it at least returns Zdroik. Across 10 games last season, the six-foot, 275-pound senior was a force along the Falcons’ line, finishing the 2023 campaign with 6.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks, the latter of which were the third-most on the team.
John Busha, quarterback: The Falcons’ offense will have a new signal caller this season, with Busha set to take over for the recently graduated Zac Larrier. There’s only so much tape on the junior, who completed just nine of 19 passes and rushed for 11 yards on 13 carries last season, but he has impressed his coaches in the leadup to the season. “He can do everything we’re asking him to,” Air Force offensive coordinator Mike Thiessen said to the Gazette. “I think he’s ready to do it at a high level.”
