According to the oddsmakers, the Denver Broncos don’t stand much chance of winning a Super Bowl this season. That’s OK. After suffering through six coaches in eight years, seven-straight losing records, and a 50-point shellacking, we’d simply be thrilled by signs of progress in 2024.

And it seems like we might just get it. The Broncos have a new, first-round QB1; they’ve inked their best player to a long-term contract; and Russell Wilson is 1,500 miles away in Pittsburgh. But we’ve been fooled before.

To ensure that doesn’t happen again, we compiled a list of five questions for the Denver Broncos’ upcoming season, which begins this Sunday at Seattle. If, at the end of the year, we can answer them positively, then we can all rest easy in the fact that the franchise has a secure foundation for the future. If not—well, maybe it’s time to toss another head coach on the dumpster fire.

In Bo Nix, have the Broncos finally found their franchise quarterback?

Since Peyton Manning retired following the 2015 season, the Broncos have tried no-names (Trevor Siemian) and re-treads (Joe Flacco). They’ve reached for phenoms (Paxton Lynch) and traded for Pro Bowlers (Russell Wilson). They’ve even put a receiver (Kendall Hinton) under center. Nothing has worked, and, consequently, Denver hasn’t sniffed the playoffs since Manning called it quits.

The team’s latest Hail Mary is arguably its most promising. The Broncos picked Bo Nix from the University of Oregon 12th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, and so far, he’s exceeded his mile-high expectations. During the preseason, Pro Football Focus gave Nix a grade of 80.4. That score would have ranked him 15th among quarterbacks in 2024, right behind the Seattle Seahawks’ Geno Smith (82.9).

Bo Nix of the Denver Broncos carries the ball in the first half during a preseason game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images

Of course, the preseason is the preseason. (Read: it doesn’t matter.) But there’s cause for optimism in how Nix excelled. At Oregon, he ran an offense that only asked him to make smart, quick throws. Nix rode that strategy all the way to New York City, where he was a Heisman Trophy finalist. To date, he’s doing the same exact thing in the NFL. His average toss was only seven yards down the field in the preseason, which isn’t exciting, but it explains why he didn’t take a single sack. Based on what we’ve witnessed in a short, watered-down sampling, Nix is every bit the intelligent game manager his proponents expect him to be.

If that’s Sean Payton’s vision—an efficient offense that gets the ball into playmakers’ hands—it’s worth wondering: Does Denver have players who can make plays? The team traded former first-rounder Jerry Jeudy to the Cleveland Browns during the offseason, making room in the offense for Marvin Mims Jr., a second-round pick in 2023. Both Mims and rookie Troy Franklin, a teammate of Nix’s at Oregon, run the 40 in about 4.4 seconds. Whether or not that speed translates into big plays after the catch will likely determine if Nix can finally fill the Elway-size hole in the Broncos’ depth chart.

Is the Broncos defense still Swiss cheese?

Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s unit was awful last year, ranking 27th out of 32 teams in points allowed per game—including an embarrassing 70 against the Miami Dolphins. This season’s iteration could be even worse. One ESPN pundit predicts that the Broncos will allow a staggering 423 points. Only the Arizona Cardinals are expected to field a more porous defense.

Denver acquired safety Brandon Jones and defensive linemen John Franklin-Myers and Malcolm Roach during the offseason. They could be fine pieces but are hardly stars. In other words, it’s unlikely that the Broncos will be much better on that side of the ball, at least when it comes to talent. Instead, Joseph seems to be relying on a shift in technique and vibes to transform the defense. According to the Athletic, the line will become more “one-gap driven” in an effort to give the Broncos’ edge players more opportunities to puncture the backfield. The players are excited about the tweak—but, at this point, that carries about as much weight as Nix’s preseason numbers.

Is the class of 2021 worth the money?

This week, the Broncos gave cornerback Patrick Surtain II a contract extension that makes him the highest-earning defensive back in the NFL. Earlier in the offseason, the front office inked guard Quinn Meinerz to a new deal that makes him one of the best-paid guards in the league. Both players earned their fortunes: Surtain is a two-time Pro Bowler, and Meinerz was the third-best guard in football in 2024, according to Pro Football Focus.

Pat Surtain II of the Denver Broncos warms up prior to a game against the Los Angeles Chargers at Empower Field. Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

Both are also members of the Broncos 2021 NFL Draft class—George Paton’s first as general manager and one of the team’s most fruitful talent hauls in recent years. Along with Surtain and Meinerz, Paton nabbed starting running back Javonte Williams and outside linebackers Baron Browning and Jonathon Cooper, two of Denver’s most effective pass rushers. The question is whether Williams, Browning, and Cooper, all of whom are in the final year of their rookie contracts, will get paid, too.

That trio has shown promise. Browning had 9.5 sacks across the past two seasons, but he’s injury-prone. Cooper, taken in the seventh round, was the Broncos’ sack leader in 2023, but edge-rusher is one of the few deep spots on the team’s roster. And Williams has established himself as Denver’s starting running back, but that’s not saying much: He averaged 3.6 yards per carry last season.

Who will be the Broncos’ breakout rookie in 2024 (besides Bo Nix)?

Despite the emergence of Browning and Cooper, Denver managed only 42 sacks in 2023, which was closer to the bottom of the league than the top. In fact, no Broncos player has recorded 10 or more sacks in a season since Von Miller and Bradley Chubb had 14.5 and 12, respectively, in 2018.

Third-round pick Jonah Elliss comes to the Broncos from the University of Utah, where he tallied 12 sacks in 2023. He’s already drawn national attention for his play in the preseason, when he caused an interception and recorded a sack and forced fumble. Those performances earned him a spot on Pro Football Focus’ Preseason All-Rookie Team. He’s unlikely to start for the Broncos—what with Browning, Cooper, and Nik Bonitto, a third-year player who had eight sacks last season, already cemented on the edge of the defense—but Elliss should quickly slot into the rotation and help increase the heat on Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert in the AFC West.

(Or—it could be this guy.)

Will Russell Wilson succeed in Pittsburgh?

No, we’re not bitter about the two first-round draft picks (and five total picks) we sent to the Seahawks for Wilson. And we couldn’t care less about the $39 million the Broncos will pay him this season to, essentially, play for another team. (It’s not our money, after all.) But Wilson’s performance in Pittsburgh will say a lot about the state of the Broncos franchise.

Considering the steep price Denver paid for Wilson’s services, the former Super Bowl champ was always going to be a lightning rod. So he was easy to blame when the Broncos’ offense stumbled. In retrospect, however, we can all agree that the 2022 team had a bigger issue in head coach Nathaniel Hackett. Payton has earned respect for his offensive acumen, thanks to his record-setting years in New Orleans with Drew Brees—so 2023 must have been Wilson’s fault.

Now with the Steelers, Wilson finds himself the QB1 of one of the league’s most stable and successful franchises, where he will play for coach Mike Tomlin, who has never finished with a losing record in 17 seasons with the team. If Wilson is the signal-caller when that streak snaps, we can all breathe a sigh of relief. However, should he guide the Steelers to yet another playoff appearance while Denver continues to struggle, we might have to face the fact that we were the problem all along—and that the Broncos’ rebuild might still be looking for its foundation.